This laboratory has as its goal the use of mathematical tools in the study and solution of real world problems coming from the applied sciences. In particular, we have studied problems coming from biophysical and financial applications. In the biophysical sciences we can cite applications to image reconstruction & tomography, structured populations, and virus dynamics. In the financial applications we can mention the study of risk management, commodity modelling, volatility estimation, and project evaluation under uncertainty.

**"Breve introdução à Teoria Evolutiva de Jogos"**

Prof. Fabio Chalub Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Dezembro 2017 - Sala 232, de 13:00 as 14:30

07/12 - Aula: Introdução informal à Teoria de Jogos. Jogos de duas estratégias e dois jogadores. Definição rigorosa de “Jogo”. Definição de comportamento racional e de Equilíbrio de Nash (EN).

08/12 - Aula: Demonstração da existência de EN em jogos com um número finito de jogadores e número finito de estratégias. Alguns exemplos.

11/12 - Aula. Teoria evolutiva de jogos. As estratégias evolutivamente estáveis (ESS). A dinâmica do replicador. Relação dos ESS com os equilíbrios do replicador e com os equilíbrios de Nash.

12/12 - Aula. Exemplos, muitos exemplos. Jogos em populações finitas. Se houver tempo: jogos com conjunto contínuo de estratégias: caso compacto e caso não compacto.

**References:**

1. Evolutionary Games and Population Dynamics. J. Hofbauer & K. Sigmund. Cambridge University Press, 1998.

2. Nowak, Martin (October 2006). “Evolutionary Dynamics: Exploring the Equations of Life”. Belknap Press. ISBN 0-674-02338-2.

We are happy to inform you that the paper "Quantifying the survival uncertainty of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in a spatial model" is now published online in Vol. 15, no. 4 August 2018 regular issue in Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering. In this article the following questions: 1) what should be the initial condition (i.e. size of the initial mosquito population) to have invasion with one mosquito release source? We note that it is hard to have an invasion in such case. 2) How many release points does one need to have sufficiently high probability of invasion? 3) What happens if one accounts for uncertainty in the release protocol (e.g. unequal spacing among release points)?

The article can be found here.

It is our pleasure to announce the release of the book **“New Trends in
Parameter Identification for Mathematical Models”** in the series "Trends in Mathematics". by Bernd Hofmann, Antonio Leitão, and Jorge P.

Zubelli. For more information see:

LAMCA's advisory board member and collaborator, Benoît Perthame has been elected to the French Academy of Sciences. See here.

LAMCA's collaborator Wenceslao González Manteiga has been elected to the Galician Academy of Sciences. See here.

We are happy to announce the success of the events:

See:

- Article in the newspaper
*O Estado de São Paulo*about Bruno Dupire and the event Research in Options. - Article about Mathematical Modeling of Criminal Behavior.
- Article about the Mathematics of the World Cup Draw.

Upcoming text "New Trends in Parameter Identification for Mathematical Models" edited by B. Hofmann, A. Leitão and J.P. Zubelli announced by Springer.

INVERSE PROBLEMS AT WORK!!! The importance of Inverse Problems in the Applied Sciences is once more confirmed by the Nobel prize award to Prof. Joachim Frank" of Columbia University for developing cryo-electron microscopy for the high-resolution structure determination of biomolecules in solution" jointly with Jacques Dubochet and Richard Henderson.

The methodology behind such technique involves the solution of a difficult inverse problem and has been the subject of intense investigation by many groups. It is in the cross roads of many research areas including numerical analysis, computer science and optimization.

We at LAMCA have been actively working in inverse problems and in 2003 published jointly with the group of Prof. Gabor T. Herman the article

"Three-dimensional reconstruction by Chahine's method from electron microscopic projections corrupted by instrumental aberrations" in the journal Inverse Problems where we studied the issue of high-resolution imaging for cryo-microscopy and proposed a class of algorithms based on a classical method of Chahine's.

LAMCA participates at the CEMRACS 2017 at the CIRM in Luminy, France.

See Talk: "Project Evaluation under Uncertainty" by J.P. Zubelli

**Paper published in Physical Review B:**

"Theory and measurements of harmonic generation in semiconductor superlattices with applications in the 100 GHz to 1 THz range"

by M. F. Pereira, J. P. Zubelli, D. Winge, et al.

**Manuscript accepted in the SIAM** **Journal on Numerical Analysis:**

"A non-intrusive stratified resampler for regression Monte Carlo:

application to solving non-linear equations"

by E. Gobet, G. Liu, and J.P. Zubelli

**Paper published (online first)
Data driven recovery of local volatility surfaces **

on

by V. Albani, U. Ascher, Xu. Yang, and J.P. Zubelli.

Discussion group on the Statistical PlanAb for the OTIM-PBR project.

March 13-15, 2017

Project Evaluation under Uncertainty: The Hedged Monte Carlo Approach.

Jorge P. Zubelli - IMPA

24/04/2017, 19:00 - room 232

Abstract : Industrial strategic decisions have evolved tremendously in the last decades towards a higher degree of quantitative analysis. Such decisions require taking into account a large number of uncertain variables and volatile scenarios, much like financial market investments. Furthermore, they can be evaluated by comparing to portfolios of investments in financial assets such as in stocks, derivatives and commodity futures. This revolution led to the development of a new field of managerial science known as Real Options. The use of Real Option techniques incorporates also the value of flexibility and gives a broader view of many business decisions that brings in techniques from quantitative finance and risk management. Such techniques are now part of the decision making process of many corporations and require a substantial amount of mathematical background. Yet, there has been substantial debate concerning the use of risk neutral pricing and hedging arguments to the context of project evaluation. We discuss some alternatives to risk neutral pricing that could be suitable to evaluation of projects in a realistic context with special attention to projects dependent on commodities and non-hedgeable uncertainties. More precisely, we make use of a variant of the hedged Monte-Carlo method of Potters, Bouchaud and Sestovic to tackle strategic decisions. This is joint work with E.Brigatti (UFRJ), F.Macias (BTG Chile) and M.O.Souza (UFF).